Working Papers

Dust to Dust: Tracing Air Pollution’s Impact on Work Accidents
with Ismael Moreno-Martinez
Draft

Presented (or will be presented) at: 24th EAERE Annual Conference, KU Leuven; 2nd Young AERNA Day, University of Girona; 10th Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics; Early Career Workshop on the Environment, Climate Change and Disasters, Gran Sasso Science Institute; 1st International Conference of the Georgian Economic Association; Microeconometrics Working Group, EUI; Norges Bank; Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union
Coverage: La Fonte
Abstract This study offers novel causal estimates of the effect of air pollution on workplace accidents. We focus on a near world-wide natural source of air pollution: dust precipitation. We use administrative data on the universe of work accidents reported in Spain. Our estimates imply that an average day of dust precipitation induces a 1.2 percent increase in work accidents. We find these effects are pervasive for workers of different occupations, income levels and demographic characteristics. We also provide evidence supporting temporary impairment of physical and cognitive performance as the main causal channel.

Recruting Better Teachers? Evidence from a higher Education Reform in Chile
with Sofia Sierra Vasquez and Adriano De Falco
Draft

Presented: 8th LEER conference, 1st CESifo/ifo Junior Workshop on the Economics of Education, EALE 2023, SAEe 2023, AIEL - Padua Workshop on the Economics of Human Capital 2024, EAYE conference 2024, 6th QMUL Economics and Finance Workshop (2024), BSE Summer Forum (2024), XVI Labour Economics Meeting.
Prizes: Luis Toharia Grant for young researchers in Labour Economics
Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of a recruitment policy aimed at improving the quality of new teachers. The reform introduced a scholarship to incentivize the enrollment of high-achieving high school graduates in teacher training programs and imposed enrollment restrictions on low-achieving high school graduates. The screening device used to define achievement was the national standardized university entry exam. Using rich administrative data, we document that the reform was effective in improving the average test scores of new teachers, especially in public schools. To assess the impact of the reform on teacher quality, we construct teacher value-added (TVA) measures based on standardized test scores of their pupils. Our findings indicate that the reform led to a significant increase in the TVA of mathematics teachers, equivalent to 30\% of their standard deviation. However, it did not affect the average TVA of Spanish teachers. We provide evidence that this heterogeneity across subjects can be explained by differences in the predictive power of test scores on teacher quality. Finally, we show that the increase in average teacher quality cannot be explained solely by the higher presence of high-achieving teachers.

Work in Progress

Temperature and Learning in Chile

Abstract This paper demonstrates that extreme temperatures negatively affect learning outcomes, particularly for students from low-income backgrounds. Using panel data of school averages from more than one and a half million students in Chile taking a standardized university entry exam, I show that cold days are particularly damaging. By looking at school attendance data for the whole population of Chilean pupils, I examine school absence as a potential impact channel. Results show that heat significantly increases school absence. Lower school attendance can, therefore, explain decreased learning outcomes due to heat, but not for the measured impact due to cold days.

Rising costs, rising gains: Analysing the effects of escalating ETS prices and reduced free allowances in Phase IV
with Jan Eric Hagend and Fotios Kalantzis
[Draft coming soon]

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on the manufacturing sector, a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions within the EU. The ETS, a market-based policy tool, imposes a cap on emissions while enabling firms to trade emission allowances. Allocation of free allowances varies across sectors based on their carbon leakage status, indicative of the risk of losing competitiveness and relocating production to regions with less stringent climate policies. Leveraging a natural experiment design that exploits this variability, we employ a panel regression analysis at the sectorial level spanning 2012 to 2022 to examine how ETS prices influence sectors’ carbon performance, production, prices, and investment while controlling for other confounding factors. By contrasting the effects of ETS prices between sectors transitioning from carbon leakage status to facing higher allowance costs in Phase IV and those retaining their status across Phases III and IV, we also determine potential disparities in ETS price impacts. Additionally, we shed light on the mechanism of investment through which the EU ETS induces firms to reduce their emissions by employing a mediation analysis. Our analysis reveals that elevated ETS prices foster carbon efficiency and emission reduction, with marginal effects on production and prices. Notably, this effect is more pronounced for sectors transitioning from free to auctioned allowances. We identify investments as a key channel, which mediates the effect of ETS prices on the carbon efficiency of firms. Thus, our findings suggest that a reduction in free allowances combined with escalating ETS prices, mediated by increased investments, can bolster the environmental performance of the EU manufacturing sector without significantly compromising its competitive position.

Bidding for the Environment: Allocation Independence in Cap-and-Trade Systems

Policy Work

Investment Report 2023/2024: Transforming for Competitiveness, European Investment Bank, Chapter 5